You don't really have the expertise to be making the claims you are, unless you have a degree in meteorology and public policy and civil engineering and have discussed things over with the panels of your colleagues.
And you have too high a opinion of so called experts.
And no understanding of real risk levels in the world around you,
but lets score this in a day or two based on Facts.
|||Quote:And you have too high a opinion of so called experts.
And no understanding of real risk levels in the world around you,
but lets score this in a day or two based on Facts.
I know. Where are my priorities and common sense? I should be listening to a late-night forum-lurker without enough qualifications in the field to even be able to say where the errors in the calculations these meteorologists are making are located. And all the more so with a lurker who tells me to essentially distrust experts here and then to trust them elsewhere. If only you were this critical when it came down to trickle-downward economists.|||For all the talk about wind speed, a hurricane's danger isn't wind or rain or even the occasional thunderstorm/tornado spawned in outlier bands. It's storm surge. New Your City and much of the Atlantic coast are not prepared to deal with storm surges from even a modest hurricane.
Nor'easters with 50mph sustained winds can produce storm surges capable of breaching sea walls that protect subway systems, airports and entire cities. A 1992 Nor'easter with an 8' storm surge hitting NYC required emergency responders in scuba gear to rescue stranded subway passengers. Large sections of the subway system are under sea level and will catastrophically fail due to flooding from a storm surge of sufficient magnitude.
A cat 2 hurricane direct hit at high tide is predicted to create 15-20 foot storm surges, higher than any recorded in NYC's history. A direct hit from a cat 1 hurricane hitting at low tide would be sufficient to flood the subway system and cause flooding at either airport. Electricity generating stations suffer the same flaw as in Japan: a storm surge breaching sea walls will shut down primary and backup plans.
The question isn't whether NYC or the Atlantic coast can handle a modest storm surge. They can't. The question is, will a modest storm surge hit NYC and the rest of the Atlantic? Last I saw, there was a 10% chance that NYC receives an 8'+ storm surge. That might sound low, but it's sufficiently high to prepare for. There isn't much they can do to prepare aside from preemptively shutting things down and evacuating.|||What I don't get is the mandatory orders for everyone in certain areas to leave their homes. I didn't realize that every single human being on the coast has a car and an emergency fund of a few thousand dollars or relatives that happen to live conveniently nearby. Gosh, if everyone is that well set up, maybe they can bribe the storm to go away?
Government: Hello, we think you're a sissy, so you must leave.
Resident: I got work tomorrow. If the storm kills me, I probably deserve to die for being a sissy.
Government: No, we want all sissies to live...and go on a big road trip in bad traffic to hole up in some strange hotel somewhere far away.|||Mandatory evacuation is misnamed. People are allowed to stay, but they are on their own. Don't expect electricity, water, natural gas, transportation, police, fire, ambulance, rescue or other governmental services. Sometimes you are fined if you need rescuing in a mandatory evacuation.
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I didn't realize that every single human being on the coast has a car and an emergency fund of a few thousand dollars or relatives that happen to live conveniently nearby. Gosh, if everyone is that well set up, maybe they can bribe the storm to go away?
If you don't prepare for emergencies, don't expect to be unaffected by emergencies. History is full of examples of how individuals depend on government and get screwed in the end. Only you are responsible for your own well being.|||I think it's funny how only the most powerful of hurricanes like Katrina would make people come together and agree with each other no matter expert or no; less powerful ones, which one is right?
edit: I digress, whether or not this hurricane/trop storm will deal big dmg or not, let's not flame each other in this important time please. There is a chance Irene may destroy a family's home or business.
I really hope it is no big deal, just a puffed up windy rain storm|||Quote:
What I don't get is the mandatory orders for everyone in certain areas to leave their homes.
Another example of why you board up your windows and don't answer your door for anyone in a uniform. I think some Katrina residents learned that one that hard way.|||Quote:
If only you were this critical when it came down to trickle-downward economists.
When have I ever endorsed that?|||3 deaths in NC already.|||Quote:
When have I ever endorsed that?
I don't know that you endorsed it directly. Perhaps I shouldn't assume that you do. But it does go hand-and-hand with some of the social policies you said you didn't support and your complaint about our income bracket (I believe you and I are near the same, if I recall) paying too much in taxes.
Maybe I am wrong. If so, I am sorry for saying that.
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